Annual Sales Slip in October, but Forecasts Point to Stronger Market in 2026

Canada’s housing market eased in October, with fewer homes changing hands and prices slipping compared with the same period last year, according to new data from the national real estate association.

Roughly 42,000 residential properties were sold across the country last month, a 4.3 per cent decline from October 2024. Despite the annual drop, activity continued to build slowly, rising nearly one per cent from September, one of several modest monthly gains seen through most of the year.

The association noted that the market briefly paused as autumn began but quickly returned to the gradual upward momentum that has been in place since spring. With borrowing costs now edging closer to levels that typically stimulate purchasing, the organization expects more active conditions moving into 2026, though broader economic caution may prevent a rapid surge.

Provincial patterns varied: sales strengthened in British Columbia, Alberta, and Quebec, while Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba saw pullbacks. Meanwhile, the supply of new listings shrank by 1.4 per cent from the previous month.

In many parts of the country, the combination of tight inventory and steady demand has tilted conditions in favour of sellers. Some markets, such as those on the Prairies, are seeing frequent bidding competition for homes that are priced sharply, leaving many prospective buyers worn down by repeated attempts to secure a property.

By the end of October, about 189,000 homes were listed for sale nationwide, over seven per cent more than a year earlier, suggesting that supply is slowly rebuilding, even as demand remains elevated.

Market observers say Canada’s housing recovery remains on track, though still in its early stages. Sales volumes have yet to return to historically strong levels, but analysts expect continued gradual growth, supported by pent-up demand and the possibility of stronger job markets next year.

The national average selling price in October was $690,195, a year-over-year decline of 1.1 per cent. The association’s home price index, designed to track typical home values, rose slightly from September to October but remained below last year’s level by about three per cent.

While many regions are likely to see mild price increases due to tight supply, conditions in British Columbia and Ontario currently lean toward buyers, which is expected to keep price growth subdued in those areas over the coming months.